Talk on scientific prediction models for the federal election 2025

As part of the lecture series on voter attitudes, voting behavior, party competition, and coalition formation, Thomas Gschwend will speak about scientific forecasting models for the 2025 election. In his talk “Keine Kristallkugel! Die wissenschaft­lichen Prognosen zur Bundestagswahl 2025 („No crystal ball! The scientific forecasts for the 2025 Bundestag election)” he will explain the reasons and restrictions of election forecasts via polls, and present a forecasting model (zweitstimme.org) for detailed predictions (distribution of second votes, blocking minority, etc.).  Prof. Dr. Hartmut Wessler will comment on the communicative aspects of election forecasts from a media science perspective.
The talk will take place on Tuesday, February 18, 2025, from 18:00 to 19:30 on the 3rd floor of the Mannheim Observatory in A4.
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