New Publication: Coalition-directed Voting under Uncertainty (forthcoming)
When voters support parties in multi-party democracies, it is often uncertain what coalition government the party will join. How do voters deal with the lack of clarity in parties’ coalition government prospects? We develop a novel conceptualization of coalition-directed voting to study the effects of this type of uncertainty. We present observational and experimental evidence that supports the idea that voters are risk-averse when considering coalition government options. Observational survey analyses show that the perception of uncertain coalition prospects negatively affects the propensity to vote for such a party, even when holding the expected coalition government payoffs constant. Using a survey vignette experiment, we provide causal evidence that uncertain coalition prospects reduce the propensity to support a party, compared to certain coalition prospects given the same expected coalition government payoffs. Together, these findings provide insights for our understanding of party competition and parties’ coalition strategies.