New publication by Muhammad Muhammad

Entangled fates—the rally effect around Europe due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine

This paper co-authored by Muhammad Muhammad and Domantas Undzenas examines whether the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered a „rally around the flag“ effect for the European Union (EU), similar to the surge in support national leaders often receive during international crises. Using a quasi-experimental design, it finds that support for the EU did indeed increase after the invasion. This rally effect is attributed more to perceived practical benefits of a united Europe than to emotional or identity-based attachment to the EU. The findings suggest potential for broader support of the EU even among skeptics, but also highlight the EU’s responsibility to demonstrate its reliability in times of crisis.

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