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GBP Monitor August: German Businesses Remain Skeptical After First 100 Days of Chancellor Merz

A new survey by the German Business Panel (GBP) at the University of Mannheim shows that German businesses view the economic policy direction of the new government only moderately positively. In particular, skepticism is high regarding the planned corporate tax reform—and the ongoing trade dispute with the United States continues to weigh on expectations. Following the most recent EU–U.S. tariff agreement, economic growth expectations have risen slightly, now standing at 1.7 percent over the next five years.

How are German businesses faring after the first 100 days of the new government? And how do corporate decision-makers evaluate the economic and tax policy proposals presented by the government? According to the latest GBP data, the government’s initial months have been strongly influenced by foreign policy tensions linked to the U.S. trade conflict, and overall satisfaction with the coalition agreement remains lukewarm:  on a scale from 0 (“very dissatisfied”) to 10 (“very satisfied”), the average rating of economic policy measures is 3.6. 

Skepticism despite timetable for corporate tax reform
This cautious assessment may be due in part to doubts about whether certain announced reforms will actually be implemented. Thirty-nine percent of surveyed companies believe it is unlikely that the corporate tax rate will in fact be reduced as outlined in the coalition agreement. Lowering the rate from 15 to 10 percent by 2032 was one of the Merz government’s flagship pledges.

Link to press release

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